Some financial experts agree that election years, especially presidential election years, impact the housing market in significant ways, including uncertainty, policy expectations, and consumer confidence.

Uncertainty about the election outcome and the resulting political and economic landscape can cause buyers and sellers take a wait-and-see approach on buying and selling.

Expectations about policy changes, such as housing regulations, access to homeownership, tax policies, and mortgage rates under the winning party can also impact buyers and seller activity.

And consumer confidence can either lead to a market slowdown as consumers postpone major purchases until they feel better about the country’s direction, or spur home sales because they are confident about regulations under the new administration.

In non-election years, the market tends to be more stable as there are typically fewer large-scale political shifts that could affect the economy or, specifically, the housing and finance markets.

We can gain a better understanding of the impact of election years by looking back.

“The level of uncertainty during the 2020 election was exceptional, noted mortgage executive Dana Hendrix, as quoted by Mortgage Reports. “Before the election, a lot of people wanted to buy homes when mortgage rates were at a record low. Others waited, both because they felt uneasy about the long-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and about the impact of the election.”

Potential buyers and sellers understand that home prices and affordability are almost sure to be influenced by the differing fiscal policies proposed by the candidates.

At the same time, mortgage rates are predicted to decline by the end of the year, as the Fed is considering rate cuts later this year.

What does all this mean to consumers?

While no one can accurately predict who will win the 2024 election, or how that will impact the real estate landscape, consumers as well as REALTORS®, builders, mortgage lenders, and investors, would do well to study the stated goals of this year’s presidential candidates – and their implications.

At the same time, given today’s short inventory and rising prices in many markets, consumers who are ready to move and are financially prepared might be wise to be less concerned about politics and campaign promises and consult with an experienced local real estate agent to determine if the time to buy or sell is right for you. 

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This material is meant for general illustration and/or informational purposes only. Although the information has been gathered from sources believed to be reliable, no representation is made as to its accuracy. This material is not intended to be construed as legal, tax or investment advice. You are encouraged to consult your legal, tax or investment professional for specific advice. 

About Bobbi Pronin

Barbara Pronin is an award-winning writer based in Orange County, Calif. A former news editor with more than 30 years of experience in journalism and corporate communications, she has specialized in real estate topics for over a decade. 

Bobbi is not an employee of Anywhere Integrated Services or affiliated with its title companies.